Development of Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) - Support to the Government of Zambia

The adaptation component of the Zambia’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) Report has been developed as a result of a continuing programme of interaction and consultation by the responsible ministries and departments of the Government of Zambia. The report presents a costings analysis of the adaptation objectives in the INDC Report, and provides a cost comparison/justification by comparison with the adaptation-oriented development objectives covered in other programmes, both existing as well as future initiatives. Examples of these programmes are Zambia’s National Adaptation Plan (NAP) and its Interim National Climate Change Response Strategy (NCCRS).

As part of the preparation for this study Ricardo Energy & Environment was provided with a preliminary version of the Zambian INDC Report, which included costing estimates for such priority actions on a sectoral basis. In the absence of other accessible costing information for the INDC process, we have used these estimates as the basis of this report, and have judged our views on whether these figures are realistic.

Our report provides an independent overview of the costs of these priority actions, by comparing, inter alia, the Zambian INDC figures with other costing frameworks (both sectoral and multi-sectoral) that have already been prepared elsewhere within Zambia, e.g. the Revised 6th National Development Plan. Based on the information available to us, and engagement with national level stakeholders, we concluded that the $20B identified as requirement for Zambia’s adaptation over the next 15 years was generally justifiable in order to put in place the various projects and programmes foreseen by the Government of the Republic of Zambia (GRZ) team that prepared the Zambian INDC.

(Our report does not qualify whether the selection of areas and actions is correct, nor whether the Zambian INDC promotes the “best optimal strategy” for Zambia. We have presumed that the 6-month multi-sectoral, multi-provincial, and inter-departmental consultations held by the Zambian INDC team, is a valid estimate of what Zambia needs in order to adapt to, and become resilient to, the impacts of climate change.)